Global cereal trade and stocks declined in 2024/25 due to reduced maize production and higher utilization, leading to a 2% drop in global stocks and a 6.9
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has reported a downturn in global cereal trade and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year, with a rebound projected in 2025/26, driven by anticipated record production across all major cereals.
According to FAO estimates, global cereal production in 2024 stood at 2,853 million tonnes—slightly below 2023 levels due to reduced output of coarse grains, particularly maize. While wheat and rice production saw modest gains, they were not enough to offset maize shortfalls.
World cereal utilization, however, grew by 1.2% in 2024/25 to 2,875 million tonnes, fueled by higher consumption of maize, sorghum, and rice. As a result of this growth, cereal stocks are projected to end the season at 865 million tonnes—a 2% decrease from opening levels. The drop in inventories is mainly attributed to declines in maize and barley stocks, partially cushioned by increases in rice and wheat reserves.
The most notable decline was in global cereal trade, which is expected to shrink by 6.9% to 478 million tonnes in 2024/25. This is primarily due to significant reductions in the trade of wheat and coarse grains. Rice trade, conversely, bucked the trend and grew over the previous year’s level.
Looking ahead, the 2025/26 season offers a more optimistic outlook. World cereal production is forecast to hit a new record of 2,911 million tonnes—up 2.1% from 2024. All major cereals are set to post gains, with maize leading the increase, followed by rice and sorghum.
Utilization is expected to rise to 2,898 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 0.8% increase, driven by expanding food consumption and feed use. FAO also forecasts a modest 1% rise in total cereal stocks, reaching 873.6 million tonnes. Most of this growth will come from coarse grain inventories, while wheat stocks may decline slightly.
Global cereal trade is projected to partially recover, rising 1.9% to 487.1 million tonnes. Wheat trade is expected to lead the rebound with a 3.8% increase, alongside a minor rise in coarse grains trade. Rice, however, is forecast to see a small 0.7% decline in international trade volumes.
Despite the fluctuations, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio is expected to remain stable at around 29.8%, indicating a broadly balanced global supply-demand situation going into the next season.
